GLASS ONION: A theatrical experiment of the old guard

A limited theatrical release of the second KNIVES OUT film cost Netflix a big payday and may have proved a want for the old ways.

Testing…testing…testing…

Hey, is this thing on?

Yep, we’re back.

I never paused watching movies; I just haven’t watched many since September 2021. Here’s to changing that, my desire to write again, and to discuss a fantastic sequel.

Can you even call GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT STORY a sequel? Daniel Craig’s Benoit Blanc returns from the 2019 breakout hit, but the second iteration of director Rian Johnson’s film franchise makes no note of the first story, let alone the social media-shattering fisherman sweater.

KNIVES OUT stunned the box office with a $312.9 million box office accumulation to a $40 budget. I partly attribute the true-crime culture boon of the last five years to this, where people can’t get enough of trying to solve cases based on hints, leads, etc., to its success. Johnson also helmed the most divisive STAR WARS movie two years prior and could have retained goodwill with moviegoers, who anticipated his next step. You absolutely can’t omit eagerness to see Chris Evans in a non-Captain America role, either, about six months after AVENGERS: ENDGAME ruled the box office. Mr. Red, White, and Blue as a villain? It’s like turning John Cena heel.

That all brought people to the theater, and as every studio wants the next great film franchise, someone paid for more. Netflix forked over $450 million for two sequels, both directed by Johnson.

Netflix is not a for-theater company. Though the past few years, they’ve given a handful of exclusive releases a short theatrical run.

So, what happens when that limited cinema release actually makes money?

GLASS ONION made $15 million, or one-third of the movie’s $40 million budget, across a seven-day window before Netflix yanked it. That’s with a predictably below-average marketing campaign, since, you know, they want you to watch at home.

David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research, told Variety it could have opened around $30 million domestically and made $300 million worldwide with a wide release.

If there’s a sound that mimics a “wasted opportunity,” someone, let me know.

Theaters share the profit, so GLASS ONION would not make the full $300 million, but Netflix had a chance to reclaim profits now on its massive investment before luring viewers to its platform on Dec. 23. Okay, yes, it just reported a nearly $8 billion profit, so I think the company will be fine, but since when did corporations intentionally leave cash on the table? Johnson reportedly wants a longer theatrical run, too, but only 19 days from the streaming release, I don’t think that happens.

Whenever KNIVES OUT 3 releases, perhaps the strategy changes.

Amid this mistake, mid-budget theatrical releases: you have a lifeline. The first KNIVES OUT gave one months before the pandemic. The second spawned fast money and a craving for an extended community experience, and potentially a desire for people to dare different from the dozens of comic book films. EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE teased such last spring with a cool $103 million box office against a $25 million budget. I’m not sure it means we’ll get more mid-budget theatrical movies because the box office divide is still colossal, but more support for other genres, directors, and studios makes for a healthier business.

GLASS ONION is suddenly an experiment, one that asks if theaters can retain some of its old glory. It’s a bigger story if Netflix boldly left it alone, to make money, but then you blur the lines of what the red brand is. I don’t think the consumer cares — it’s just a business move to not divert from the company mission.